Long betting

It has been exactly six years to the day since I instantiated this prediction:

The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.

It is exactly five years to the day until the prediction condition resolves to a Boolean true or false.

If it resolves to true, The Bletchly Park Trust will receive $1000.

If it resolves to false, The Internet Archive will receive $1000.

Much as I would like Bletchley Park to get the cash, I’m hoping to lose this bet. I don’t want my pessimism about URL longevity to be rewarded.

So, to recap, the bet was placed on

02011-02-22

It is currently

02017-02-22

And the bet times out on

02022-02-22.

Have you published a response to this? :

Responses

Matt Haughey

I thought about it the other day and wondered how long until the finish. I have a good feeling that URL is staying up!

# Posted by Matt Haughey on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 2:45pm

Paul Morriss

“Your organization’s policy prohibits access to websites categorized as Gambling.” So not available to me!

8 Likes

# Liked by Eric Eggert ⭐️ on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:13pm

# Liked by ge ricci on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:13pm

# Liked by Shane Hudson on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:14pm

# Liked by Nick F on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:39pm

# Liked by Daniel Burka on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:39pm

# Liked by Ted Han on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 3:13pm

# Liked by Matt Haughey on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 3:14pm

# Liked by Long Now on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 3:45pm