Long betting

It has been exactly six years to the day since I instantiated this prediction:

The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.

It is exactly five years to the day until the prediction condition resolves to a Boolean true or false.

If it resolves to true, The Bletchly Park Trust will receive $1000.

If it resolves to false, The Internet Archive will receive $1000.

Much as I would like Bletchley Park to get the cash, I’m hoping to lose this bet. I don’t want my pessimism about URL longevity to be rewarded.

So, to recap, the bet was placed on

02011-02-22

It is currently

02017-02-22

And the bet times out on

02022-02-22.

Have you published a response to this? :

Responses

Matt Haughey

I thought about it the other day and wondered how long until the finish. I have a good feeling that URL is staying up!

# Posted by Matt Haughey on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 2:45pm

Paul Morriss

“Your organization’s policy prohibits access to websites categorized as Gambling.” So not available to me!

1 Share

# Shared by Baldur Bjarnason on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 4:07pm

8 Likes

# Liked by Eric Eggert ⭐️ on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:13pm

# Liked by ge ricci on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:13pm

# Liked by Shane Hudson on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:14pm

# Liked by Nick F on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:39pm

# Liked by Daniel Burka on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 12:39pm

# Liked by Ted Han on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 3:13pm

# Liked by Matt Haughey on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 3:14pm

# Liked by Long Now on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 at 3:45pm

Previously on this day

7 years ago I wrote Jets dream

A modest proposal for long-distance air travel.

9 years ago I wrote The long prep

Care to place a wager?

12 years ago I wrote Thai-ing the knot

Going east.

12 years ago I wrote Resolved

The search on Upcoming has been fixed.

15 years ago I wrote Another day, another micropayment

Jason Kottke has given up his day job. He is now attempting to make a living from personal publishing.

16 years ago I wrote Teleport

I took a trip on Friday to see the good folks over at Motionpath.

18 years ago I wrote Quest for an iMac

Seems like I’m not the only one who has had trouble trying to get hold of an iMac for a test-drive.

18 years ago I wrote Bring on the dancing iMacs

According to this list, one of the things to be avoided in any blog is "your Mac fetish".

18 years ago I wrote Ashcroft Invokes Religion In U.S. War on Terrorism

Now America has a faith-based war.