Tags: year

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Long betting

It has been exactly six years to the day since I instantiated this prediction:

The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.

It is exactly five years to the day until the prediction condition resolves to a Boolean true or false.

If it resolves to true, The Bletchly Park Trust will receive $1000.

If it resolves to false, The Internet Archive will receive $1000.

Much as I would like Bletchley Park to get the cash, I’m hoping to lose this bet. I don’t want my pessimism about URL longevity to be rewarded.

So, to recap, the bet was placed on

02011-02-22

It is currently

02017-02-22

And the bet times out on

02022-02-22.

Twenty sixteen

When I took a look at back at 2015, it was to remark on how nicely uneventful it was. I wish I could say the same about 2016. Instead, this was the year that too damned much kept happening.

The big picture was dominated by Brexit and Trump, disasters that are sure to shape events for years to come. I try to keep the even bigger picture in perspective and remind myself that our species is doing well, and that we’re successfully battling poverty, illiteracy, violence, pollution, and disease. But it’s so hard sometimes. I still think the overall trend for this decade will be two steps forward, but the closing half is almost certain to be one step back.

Some people close to me have had a really shitty year. More than anything, I wish I could do more to help them.

Right now I’m thinking that one of the best things I could wish for 2017 is for it to be an uneventful year. I’d really like it if the end-of-year round-up in 365 days time had no world-changing events.

But for me personally? 2016 was fine. I didn’t accomplish any big goals—although I’m very proud to have published Resilient Web Design—but I’ve had fun at work, and as always, I’m very grateful for all the opportunities that came my way.

I ate some delicious food…

Short rib. Seabass with carrot-top pesto on beet greens and carrot purée. Bratwurst. Sausage and sauerkraut. Short ribs. Homemade pappardelle with pig cheek ragu. Barbecued Thai chicken. Daily oyster. Kebab. Chicharrones. Nightfireburger. Ribeye.

I went to beautiful places…

Popped in to see Caravaggio and Holbein. Our home for the week. Bodleian go where no one has gone before. Tram. Amsterdam’s looking lovely this morning. Stockholm street. Mauer. Ah, Venice! Barcelona. Malibu sunset. Cuskinny.

And I got to hang out with some lovely doggies…

Mia! Archie is my favourite @EnhanceConf speaker. Mesa, Lola, and @wordridden. Rainier McChedderton! I met Zero! Yay! Thanks, @wilto. On the bright side, Huxley is in the @Clearleft office today. The day Herbie came to visit @Clearleft. It’s Daphne. Poppy’s on patrol. Morty! Scribble is a good dog. Sleepy.

Have a happy—and uneventful—new year!

Year’s end

I usually write a little post at the end of each year, looking back at the previous 365 days. But this time I feel like I’ve already done that. I’ve already written about my year of learning with Charlotte, which describes what I’ve been doing at work for the last twelve months.

Apart from that, there isn’t much more to say about 2015. And that’s a good thing. 2014 was a year tainted by death so I’m not complaining about having just had a year with no momentous events.

The worst that could be said of my 2015 is that Clearleft went through a tough final quarter of the year (some big projects ended up finishing around the same time, which left us floundering for new business—something we should have foreseen), but in the grand scheme of things, that’s not exactly a tragedy.

Mostly when I think back on the year, my memories are pleasant ones. I travelled to interesting places, ate some great food, and spent time with lovely people—Jenn and Sutter’s wedding being a beautiful blend of all three.

So instead of doing a year-end roundup of my own, I’ll just point to some others: James, Alice, Laura, Eliot, Remy, and Brad.

I look forward to reading more posts on their websites in 2016. I hope that you’ll be publishing on your website this year too.

Happy new year!

Japan Hackfarm Anna and Cennydd Rachel at Jon and Hannah's wedding Bletchley Park Beerleft Brad visits Brighton Visiting my mother in Ireland Jessica and Emil Homebrew Website Club Jessica and Dan Jenn and Sutter Me and Brian Clearleft turns 10 Jessica in Austin Clearleft interns Christmas jumpers Christmas in Seattle

It’s the end of the year as we know it.

It’s the last day of the year. I won’t be going out tonight. I’m going to stay in with Jessica in our cosy home.

The general consensus is that 2014 was a crappy year for human beings on planet Earth. In actuality, and contrary to popular belief, the human race continued its upward trend of improvement in almost all areas. Less violence, less disease, fewer wars, a record-breaking minimum of air crashes, and while the disparity between the richest and the poorest has increased, the baseline level of what constitutes poverty continues to increase throughout the world.

This trend is often met with surprise, or even disbelief. Just ask Matt Ridley and Steven Pinker. We tend to over-inflate the negative and undervalue the positive. And we seem to do it more and more with each passing year (which, in itself, can be seen as part of the overall positive trend: the fact that violence and inequality outrages us now more than ever is, on balance, a good thing). It seems to be part of our modern human nature to allow the bad to overwhelm the good in its importance.

Take my past year, for example. There was so much that was good. It was a good year for Clearleft and I travelled to marvellous places (Tel Aviv, Munich, Seattle, Austin, San Diego, Riga, Freiburg, Bologna, Florida, and more). I ate wonderful food. I read. I wrote. I listened. I spoke. I attended some workshops. I ran some workshops. I learned. I taught. I went to some great events. I organised Responsive Day Out 2 and dConstruct. I even wrote the occasional bit of code.

But despite all of that, 2014 is a year that feels dominated by death.

It started at the beginning of the year with the death of Jessica’s beloved Oma. The only positive spin I can put on it is that she had a long life, and she died surrounded by her family (Jessica included). But it was still a horrible event.

For the first half of the year, the web community was united behind Eric as he went through the unimaginable. Then, in June, Rebecca died. And the web community was united in sorrow. It was such an outrage against all that is good in this world.

I visited Eric that day. I tried to convey how much the people of the web were feeling for him. I couldn’t possibly convey it, but I had to try. I offered what comfort I could, but some situations are so far beyond normalcy that literally nothing can be done.

That death, the death of a child …there’s something so wrong, so obscene about it.

One month later, Chloe killed herself.

I miss her. I miss her so much.

So I understand why, despite the upward trends in human achievement, despite all the positive events of the last twelve months, 2014 feels like a year of dread and grief. I understand why so many people are happy to see the back of 2014. Good riddance, right?

But I still don’t want to let the bad—and boy, was it ever bad—crush the good. I’m seeing out the year as I mean to go on: eating good food, drinking good wine, reading, writing, and being alive.

It’s the last day of the year. I won’t be going out tonight. I’m going to stay in with Jessica in our cosy home.